All NFL Picks are either bounce or bargain plays. Refer to The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread article under Handicapping & Betting heading for background information.
The Dangerous Home Favorite features an NFL game where the home team has a power rating differential (PRD) that ranges between a small negative and a small positive with positive momentum. Many a handicapper and bettor would consider this matchup a tossup. This debatable home favorite is neither a short or long favorite as the pointspread range for this situation has the favorite laying between 3 and 9.5 points.
Over the last 6 years, the Dangerous Home Favorite has compiled an incredible pointspread record of 48 wins against 23 losses. This is a sizzling 68% pointspread winning ratio with an average of 12 plays per season.
The PRD shows a home team with no compelling performance advantage. It is the classic flying under the radar, except for those who know better. Play the bargain home favorite. PLAY ON the Dangerous Home Favorite.