Part 6 – The Linesmaker

Predicting uncertainty means not trying to outsmart the linesmaker. The handicapping effort recognizes the posted line and from there the ATS (against the spread) historical results are compared to the net rating for that particular game. Of importance here is that based on historical results, a play occurs within a strict pointspread range. For example, a particular game’s net rating and pointspread compared to historical ATS results shows a solid winning ATS advantage for a home favorite when laying between 4.5 and 6.5 points. However, if the favorite is laying 4 or less, history shows there is no ATS advantage. This means that the favorite is not a play if laying 4 or less. This is the counterintuitive nature of predicting uncertainty which is a must in order to beat the pointspread on a consistent basis. Astute handicapping understands the linesmaker’s sole purpose is to generate equal betting action on each NFL and NBA game and not to predict a final score differential. Accept the pointspread without the analytical effort to determine whether the spread is high, low or spot on. The handicapping effort aims to identify the bargain and bounce play opportunities.