All NBA Picks are either bounce or bargain plays. Refer to The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread article under the Handicapping & Betting heading for background information.
The Declining Home Dog is an NBA game where the home dog has a typical 6 or less point negative power rating differential (PRD) for a home dog and is getting less than 10 points. The key is this typical home dog is coming off a straight up (SU) win that history shows masks this struggling home dog.
Over the last 6 years, the Declining Home Dog has posted a pointspread record of 60 wins against 101 losses for a paltry 37% winning clip ATS. This play presents itself on an average of 30 plays per season.
The road favorite is the better team and the side to play. Follow the numbers and back the bargain road favorite. PLAY AGAINST the Declining Home Dog.