The Daunting Task

Legal and illegal sports books are very profitable over the long haul which means the majority of the betting public’s bankroll operates in deficit mode. The sports book advantage is twofold: 1) a 52.38% winning percentage is needed to break even assuming equal wagers with a typical 11:10 payment ratio for straight bets, and 2) the pointspread attempts to equalize betting dollars on each side of a game thereby not affording the betting public a clear choice of favorable odds. The sports book and linesmaker are formidable foes indeed and combined with all the variables and bounces of the ball that affect the outcome of a game, finding consistent pointspread winners is challenging and difficult. However, the good news is that beating the NFL and NBA pointspread is achievable with the correct handicapping approach and money management discipline.

Never underestimate the vigorish. The vig can slowly and methodically erode your bankroll over the course of a betting season. Handicapping and betting efforts must overcome the vig or house advantage.

I am a firm believer in the 50-50 rule. As a handicapper, 50% of the games are uncontrollable with 50% being controllable. Solid handicapping and smart betting have zero impact on the 50% uncontrollable games because the outcome of these games are ultimately decided by lucky breaks, bizarre plays, great plays, bad officiating, an unpredictable bounce of the ball, etc. It is the 50% controllable games where astute handicapping and betting have to make the difference. Consider the goal of picking 54 out of 100 winners ATS. This means that if the handicapper and bettor win 50% of the uncontrollable games, they would have to win 29 of the 50 controllable plays. Of course there is no way of telling which plays will be controllable or not. So much for the “lock” theory.