All NBA Picks are either bounce or bargain plays. Refer to The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread article under the Handicapping & Betting heading for background information.
The Surging Home Favorite is an NBA game where the home team is defined by a solid 3 to 14 point positive power rating differential (PRD), has solid positive momentum and is favored by no more than 5.5 points. The two keys are one, the rest factor is even or to the advantage of the road opponent and two, the home team only needs an outright 6 point margin of victory. to cash the bet. Often times the negative rest factor may keep the betting public away from this home team that history shows is ready to strike big time.
Over the last 6 years, the Surging Home Favorite is being underestimated in this situation as this modest favorite has responded with a pointspread record of 48 wins against only 20 losses for a resounding 70% winning clip ATS. Unfortunately, this play only presents itself an average of 11 plays per season (but what a bargain).
The home team is the better team and is not laying a surplus of points. Back the bargain home favorite. PLAY ON the Surging Home Favorite.