All NFL Picks are either bounce or bargain plays. Refer to The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread article under the Handicapping & Betting heading for background information.
The Surging Home Favorite has a positive power rating differential (PRD) in the 7 to 10 point range. It also has positive momentum and is favored by less than 10 points.
Over the last 6 years, the Surging Home Favorite has posted a winning pointspread record of 20 wins against 12 losses. This is a solid 62% pointspread winning percentage with an average of 5 plays per season.
The PRD shows the home favorite is the obvious stronger team in this matchup, but not by more than 10 points that would certainly get the public’s attention. Historical results prove that the 7 to 10 point PRD advantage identifies a home favorite ready to dominate. Play the bargain home favorite. PLAY ON the Surging Home Favorite.