All NBA Picks are either bounce or bargain plays. Refer to The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread article under the Handicapping & Betting heading for background information.
The Overrated Home Dog is an NBA game where the home dog has a solid 3 or more point better power rating differential (PRD) and a significant momentum advantage than its road favorite opponent. This is the classic home dog that is too good to be true.
Over the last 6 years, the Overrated Home Dog has a pointspread record of only 60 wins against 101 losses. This is a miserable 37% winning mark with an average of 27 plays per season.
History has shown this home dog is a home dog for a reason as it fails to cover big time in this spot. More times than not, the linesmaker is way ahead of the betting public in this situation. Look for the home dog to bounce back down. PLAY AGAINST the Overrated Home Dog.