Part 2 – Predicting Certainty vs. Uncertainty

Predicting certainty is the use of statistics to calculate a pointspread or final score. The projected point disparity is then compared to the actual pointspread in the decision making process. If the calculated pointspread or score differential is deemed significantly higher or lower than the posted line, then conventional wisdom says to back or fade accordingly. Unfortunately, due to the infinite number of variables affecting the outcome of any game, a handicapping method aimed at predicting a “certain” pointspread or final score is doomed from the start and it will not lead to long term success in beating the pointspread. Handicappers and bettors must realize that the betting spreads rely on external profitability factors into account outside of the play on the field, which is why they aren’t to be taken as predictions.  NFL and NBA games is about predicting uncertainty in the quest for consistent pointspread winners.