All NFL Picks are either bounce or bargain plays. Refer to The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread article under the Handicapping & Betting heading for background information.
The Overrated Home Dog has a positive power rating differential (PRD) worth a touchdown or less and is getting less than 10 points. This is the too good to be true home dog.
Over the last 6 years, the Overrated Home Dog has laid an egg posting a pointspread record of only 27 wins against 51 losses. This is a very poor 35% pointspread winning percentage with an average of 14 plays per season.
The PRD shows the home team is the better team and getting points no less. Historical results prove that the perceived better home dog crashes and burns contrary to common handicapping reasoning. Back the home dog to bounce down. PLAY AGAINST the Overrated Home Dog.