All NBA Picks are either bounce or bargain plays. Refer to The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread article under the Handicapping & Betting heading for background information.
The Overmatched Home Team is an NBA game where the home team is defined by a large negative power rating differential (PRD) and negative momentum and is either an underdog or a favorite of no more than 5 points. The large disparity of 10 or more points in the PRD shows the road favorite is thoroughly outplaying this seemingly overmatched home squad.
But, over the last 6 years, the Overmatched Home Team has responded in this situation with a pointspread record of 167 wins against 111 losses. This is a 60% winning mark with an average of 46 plays per season.
The linesmaker knows the road side is the popular side with the streaky favorite bettors. The results beg to differ with public opinion. Back the home team to bounce back up. PLAY ON the Overmatched Home Team.