TOTALS Play – NFL Net Yards per Point

Yards per Point (YPP) is a fundamental statistic analyzed by football handicappers. In theory, better offensive teams gain fewer yards than their opponents to generate the same amount of points and better defensive teams make their opponents gain more yards to score the same amount of points. YPP is the result of  yards from scrimmage, turnovers, special teams and red zone efficiency. The combination of multiple statistical factors makes YPP a valuable tool in the handicapping arsenal.

Net Yards per Point (NYPP) considers both NFL opponents. It compares the offensive and defensive YPP values for each team and computes the difference in the values between the two opponents. If Team A is playing Team B and Team A has a plus 7.5 NYPP relative to Team B, this means that Team A is better than Team B by 7.5 yards per point for both points scored and allowed. NYPP combines the offense and defense YPP of each team.

TOTALS Play

An interesting totals or over/under trend finds when a home team has a significant NYPP advantage of 9 or more in its most recent games, the OVER has cashed 240 out of 442 games (54.3% winners since 2002) when the posted total is less than 50. A closer look reveals that if you eliminate the plays where the home team has a plus 40 or greater net yards from scrimmage advantage over the opponent, the NYPP>=9 OVER play shows 144 overs versus only 100 unders for an impressive 59% winning clip which includes 22-12 during the last 3 years. This is a TOTALS play worth future consideration.