All NBA Picks are either bounce or bargain plays. Refer to The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread article under the General Handicapping Articles heading for background information.
The Live Home Dog is an NBA game where the home dog is defined by a small negative power rating differential (PRD), is coming off a straight up (SU) loss and is getting 3 or more points. Given the relatively small PRD, factoring in the home court advantage could make this home dog a small favorite or pick’em. A key for this play is that the home dog is coming off a straight up (SU) loss that biases the betting public into underestimating this live home dog.
Over the last 6 years, the live home dog has accounted for a 98 win against 71 loss pointspread record. This is a 58% winning mark with an average of 28 plays per season.
This is the classic undervalued home dog. Back the bargain home dog. PLAY ON the live home dog.