All NBA Picks are either bounce or bargain plays. Refer to The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread article under the Handicapping & Betting heading for background information.
The High Priced Home Favorite is an NBA game where the home team has a vastly superior power rating differential (PRD) of 13 or more points with positive momentum and is laying double digit points. This game features either a very hot home team or a very cold road team or a combination thereof.
Over the last 6 years, the High Priced Home Favorite doesn’t quite live up to expectation as the projected pricey pointspread tilts the odds towards the lowly road dog in this contest. The large home favorite has posted only 94 wins against 163 losses ATS. This is a disappointing 36.5% winning mark with an average of 43 plays per season.
A blowout win is anticipated but a high luxury tax accompanies this superior home side. Play the home team to bounce back down to earth. PLAY AGAINST the High Priced Home Favorite.