In order for a pointspread situation to qualify for a bounce or bargain play, it must meet reliability and frequency standards.
For reliability, a pointspread situation must post a consistent winning mark against the spread (ATS) for at least 5 years running. Avoid pointspread situations where a 5 year period may show an overall healthy win percentage, but closer examination reveals that 2 of the 5 seasons exhibited a losing mark. Also steer clear of an overall winning situation over a period of time where the results may be distorted because of a single incredible winning or losing season because removing this outlier season finds the overall record not as compelling.
In addition, there has to be at least 10 or more plays per NBA season or 5 or more plays per NFL season to validate a real pointspread outcome advantage. Anything less would create an analysis with not enough data. Incomplete studies and infrequent results generate coincidence.
Remember, inconsistent or coincidental results are the bookmaker’s best friend. Only risk reputation or hard earned money on a time proven track record of consistent success.