The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread

Two distinct tasks are involved in trying to beat the pointspread: handicapping and betting. Handicapping identifies the games that present a pointspread outcome advantage and betting determines the money management approach.

Handicapping the individual games is the first undertaking and begins with evaluating the matchup for selected criteria to quantify a numerical power rating or point difference between the opponents. This value will be referred to as the PRD (power rating differential) which can then be compared to the actual pointspread. However, POINTSPREADWINNERS.COM does not look for noteworthy discrepancies between a PRD and the pointspread as a basis for determining favorable pointspread plays. Trust me, it is not that easy as many a handicapper and bettor has lost droves of money with this seemingly common sense numerical approach.

Armed with the PRD, an understanding of the uncertainty of team performance and pointspread outcomes is essential for the successful handicapping of NFL and NBA games. The PRD and pointspread are analyzed solely to identify an overvalued or undervalued  pointspread. An overvalued pointspread means a favorite that appears to be laying too many points or an underdog not getting enough points. An undervalued line means the favorite appears to be laying too light of a number or the underdog is getting too many points.

The foundation of the POINTSPREADWINNERS.COM handicapping approach is to recognize the situations where overvalued and undervalued pointspreads lead to “bounce” or “bargain” plays.  A bounce play game is a combination of an inflated pointspread due to performance levels exceeding the normal ranges and a calculated expectation that team performance levels will revert back to normal ranges. Think of it as buying an overpriced stock at its high point. Whereas a bargain play identifies a matchup where the pointspread is lagging behind accelerating team performance levels. Think of it as buying an emerging stock at a bargain price before it makes significant gains.

Important to note is most overvalued and undervalued lines are not bounce and  bargain plays. POINTSPREADWINNERS.COM evaluates multiple performance variables to pinpoint the bounce and bargain plays.

Successful betting on NFL and NBA games is the second task and requires the unwavering discipline of removing the emotional highs from winning and the emotional lows from losing in influencing the placing of bets. The handicapping effort devoid of emotion solely determines the next bet. In addition, a sound money management strategy determines the size of each individual wager based on the betting bankroll total.

Handicapping and Betting Summary

  1. Evaluate the game opponents with relevant information and statistics to compute a PRD that quantifies how much better one team is than their opponent.
  2. Compare the PRD and pointspread to identify overvalued or undervalued teams.
  3. Identify the bounce and bargain situations to produce pointspread outcome advantages.
  4. Maintain strict money management discipline.
  5. The handicapping effort yields which games to bet, not the emotions from winning and losing bets.

You are probably asking what selected criteria are used in handicapping work to calculate a PRD. Additional articles found on this website and ones to be published in the future will offer clues to handicapping methods and money management principles. The operating concept of POINTSPREADWINNERS.COM is that the handicapping effort is provided on the website. The readers and followers need only to handle the betting end. Enjoy the site.