All NFL Picks are either bounce or bargain plays. Refer to The PRD and Beating the NFL & NBA Pointspread article under the Handicapping & Betting heading for background information.
The Bad Home Favorite is an NFL game where the home team is defined by a negative power rating differential (PRD) but has positive momentum. Here, the road dog has been outperforming the home favorite but the recent game improvement by the home team appears to sway public opinion as the linesmaker establishes the home squad a solid favorite as the favorite is neither a short or long favorite laying between 3 and 9.5 points.
Over the last 6 years, the Bad Home Favorite lives up to its billing having compiled a dismal pointspread record of 15 wins against 32 losses. This is a lowly 31% winning mark with an average of 8 plays per season.
The PRD shows the road team is the better team. Common sense dictates the decision. Play the bargain road dog. PLAY AGAINST the Bad Home Favorite